Fed's Williams Sends Hawkish Message: 'Year-End Rate Hike Reasonable,' Forward Guidance Is Over
New York Fed President John Williams said at a conference in London on Thursday that it was "reasonable" for markets to expect one more rate hike by year-end; however, he avoided a firm commitment on the October meeting and stressed that policymakers would keep watching incoming data. Williams also said the Fed had moved past its era of forward guidance. Following the remarks, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a new rate hike at the October FOMC meeting rose above 70%.
Brent Falls Below $105: Gulf-Iran Talks Expected in Oman, IEA Cuts Demand Forecast
Brent crude fell back below $105 a barrel on Friday after Thursday's Houthi-attack-driven spike. The pullback was driven by reports that senior diplomats from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states would meet their Iranian counterparts in Oman on Monday to discuss a temporary arrangement for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected in its September Oil Market Report that global oil demand in 2026 would contract by 2.5 million barrels per day; that marks the second-sharpest annual decline in 60 years, behind only the Covid-19 pandemic, and reflects a roughly 940,000-barrel-per-day deeper contraction than in the previous report.
Dollar Touches Two-Month High, Then Pulls Back: Euro at 1.1384, Pound Above 1.3200
The dollar index (DXY) climbed to a roughly two-month high of 101.40 on Friday before easing back and consolidating around 101.00. Against that backdrop, the euro traded at 1.1384 against the dollar, while the pound held above 1.3200 after losing more than 1% since the start of the week.
Ekonomik Takvim | September 28 - October 2, 2026
🇴🇲 September 28, 2026 (Monday)
Gulf States-Iran Hormuz Talks (Oman)
Senior diplomats from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states will meet their Iranian counterparts in Oman to discuss a possible temporary arrangement for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; the outcome is being closely watched for its impact on oil prices.
🇺🇸 October 2, 2026, 15:30 (TSİ)
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Department of Labor's September non-farm payrolls report will be released at 15:30 (TSİ); a strong labor market reading could shape expectations for the Fed's October rate decision.
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