New Medium-Term Program (2027-2029) Published in the Official Gazette
The new Medium-Term Program (MTP), announced by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and covering the 2027-2029 period, was published in the Official Gazette. In the program, the end-2026 inflation forecast was revised to %28,4, while annual inflation was targeted to recede to %21 in 2027, %13,5 in 2028, and %9 in 2029. On the growth side, the economy is projected to expand by %3,3 in 2026, %4,2 in 2027, %4,6 in 2028, and %5,0 in 2029.
Budget Deficit, Employment and National Income Targets
According to the program, the ratio of the budget deficit to GDP is targeted to be %3,1 in 2026 and %2,8 at the end of the program period. In the MTP, where the unemployment rate is projected to recede from %8,1 in 2026 to %7,6 in 2029, it is aimed to create 2,1 million additional jobs throughout the period, increase per capita national income above 2,2 trillion dollars for the first time, and raise goods and services exports to 450 billion dollars.
No Official Exchange Rate Target in MTP, 'Implicit Calculation' Deemed 'Ambitious' by the Market
While a separate exchange rate table is not included in the MTP text, according to the implicit calculation obtained by dividing the TL and dollar-based figures of GDP, the annual average USD/TL exchange rate is expected to materialize at 46.87 TL in 2026, 56.05 TL in 2027, 63.69 TL in 2028, and 68.83 TL in 2029; this means that the annual rate of increase in the exchange rate will gradually slow down from 18.7% in 2026 to 8.1% in 2029. While Cevdet Yılmaz emphasized that this calculation is not an exchange rate target, but a "computational projection" based on the inflation differential, market participants evaluate the forecast as "ambitious" considering the high interest rate environment and volatility in the exchange rate.
Ekonomik Takvim | 7-13 September 2026
🇹🇷 10 September 2026, 14:00 (TRT)
CBRT Rate Decision
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey had kept the policy rate constant at %37 in its last meeting.
🇺🇸 11 September 2026, 15:30 (TSİ)
US CPI (August)
Annual inflation was announced at %3,4 in the previous month; following the strong employment data, it will be monitored as the last major data regarding the Fed's decision on 15-16 September.
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