US Employment Smashes Expectations: +162 Thousand in August
According to US Department of Labor data, non-farm payrolls increased by 162 thousand in August, well above the market expectation of 53-58 thousand people. While the unemployment rate remained stable at %4,1, average hourly earnings rose %0,3 monthly and %3,1 annually, and the labor force participation rate climbed to %61,6. July employment data was also revised upward from the previous -23 thousand figure to +21 thousand; a total of 55 thousand additional jobs were created in June-July.
Fed September Rate Hike Probability Rises to %59
Following the strong employment report, according to CME FedWatch and futures pricing, the probability of a rate hike at the 15-16 September FOMC meeting rose from the %52-55 band prior to the data to %59; in some calculations, this rate reached as high as %65 during the day. Thus, the report largely reversed rate hike expectations that had declined a day earlier due to dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller. All eyes in the markets are now on the August US CPI data to be announced on 11 September.
Gold Tests Below 4.400 Dollars
XAU/USD, following the strong employment data, fell below 4.400 dollars from the 4.470-4.500 dollars band reached on Thursday, at one point losing nearly %2 in value due to the rise in bond yields and the dollar; gold is trading around 4.420 dollars in the afternoon hours. Technically, 4.400 dollars is monitored as critical support, while a sustained close below this level could bring the 4.300 dollars region onto the agenda; a return above 4.500 dollars will ease the pressure.
Bond Yields and Dollar Index Rise
US 10-year bond yield rose to %4,78, while the 2-year bond yield rose to %4,39. The dollar index (DXY) recovered from Thursday's weekly low of 98,83 to reach the post-data day high of 99,39, evaluating the day around 99,20. Meanwhile, USD/TRY moved in the 48,27-48,45 TL band during the day, edging slightly above Thursday's close of 48,33 TL.
Ekonomik Takvim | 7-13 September 2026
🇹🇷 10 September 2026, 14:00 (TRT)
CBRT Rate Decision
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey had kept the policy rate constant at %37 in its last meeting.
🇺🇸 11 September 2026, 15:30 (TSİ)
US CPI (August)
Annual inflation was announced as 3.4% in the previous month; following the strong employment report, it will be watched as the last major data point regarding the Fed's September 16 decision.
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