Dovish Signal from Fed's Waller: September Rate Hike Probability Drops to %54,6
In his speech on Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that he was ready to keep interest rates unchanged at the 15-16 September FOMC meeting, provided that the disinflation process is confirmed by data to be released over the next two weeks. Stating that inflation is still "significantly above" the Fed's %2 target but that recent data point to disinflation, Waller added that a rate hike would remain on the table if August inflation comes in hot. Following the statements, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a September rate hike dropped by approximately 12 points within minutes to %54,6; this rate had risen to %66-67 following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech.
Gold Rises Over %2, Consolidates Below 4.500 Dollars Friday Morning
XAU/USD gained over %2 on Thursday following Waller's dovish comments, rising to 4.487 dollars, its highest level since 28 August. In the Asian session on Friday morning, gold consolidates below 4.500 dollars while maintaining most of these gains; investors await the clues that today's US non-farm payrolls data will provide regarding the Fed's policy path.
Bond Yields Decline: 10-Year %4,761, 2-Year %4,322
Following Waller's statements, US bond yields declined: the 2-year bond yield dropped to %4,322, while the 10-year bond yield dropped to %4,761. The decline in yields is read as a reflection that the market is starting to attach more weight to the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged at its September meeting.
DXY Pulls Back to 98,98, USD/TRY in 48,25-48,30 TL Band
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped from Thursday evening's level of 99,51 to 98,98 on Friday morning under the influence of Waller's dovish tone and falling bond yields. Meanwhile, USD/TRY traded in the 48,25-48,30 TL band in the morning hours, dipping slightly below Thursday's one-month high of 48,34 TL.
Ekonomik Takvim | 31 August - 5 September 2026
🇺🇸 Today 15:30 (TSI)
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Dow Jones market expectation for August is +53 thousand; following employment that contracted by a surprising 23 thousand in July, this is critical data that could reprice rate hike expectations that dropped with Waller's dovish remarks.
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