EUR/USD: Expectations for September Rate Hike at ECB Strengthen
Strong GDP and PMI data in the Eurozone reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank may raise rates at the September meeting. In contrast, the Fed's lack of clear guidance in the near term weakens confidence in the dollar and leads to two-way pricing of the interest rate differential between the two banks. The EUR/USD pair traded around the 1,14 level this week.
Gold: Fed Kept Rates Steady for Fifth Time, XAU/USD Above 4.000 Dollars
FOMC maintained its wait-and-see stance for the fifth consecutive meeting by keeping the policy rate steady in the %3,50-3,75 range; it was notable that three members dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike. Following the decision, XAU/USD continued to remain above 4.000 dollars. In the first quarter of 2026, central banks' net 244 ton gold purchases — particularly purchases by China, Poland, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan — continue to structurally support the price.
Nasdaq 100: Tech Earnings Sent Mixed Signals
Divergence occurred in Nasdaq during the July earnings season: Microsoft exceeded expectations thanks to %43 growth in Azure cloud revenue, recording a %15 rise in its shares. In contrast, Meta Platforms lost over %9 in value after falling short of earnings per share expectations, while Qualcomm declined %7 on mixed results. As a net effect, the Nasdaq Composite completed the day with a %2,8 rise; strong results on the chip and cloud side offset the impact of weak social media earnings.
Brent Crude: OPEC+ Increased Production, Prices Recovered Regardless
OPEC+ marked the fifth consecutive month of easing production restrictions since April by increasing production by 188 thousand barrels per day starting from August. Despite the supply increase, ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East supported prices, and Brent rose above 88 dollars per barrel. Major investment banks project that prices may gradually decline over the remainder of the year due to the supply surplus.
Ekonomik Takvim | First Week of August 2026
🇺🇸 Friday, 7 August
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data
The NFP data released on the first Friday of the month may affect expectations for the Fed's rate path and consequently the pricing on EUR/USD and XAU/USD.
🇪🇺 September 2026
Statements Regarding the ECB September Meeting
ECB officials are being closely watched for signals ahead of the September meeting; a potential rate hike signal could increase volatility in euro pairs.
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