EUR/USD: Trading Near Two-Month High
EUR/USD is trading at the 1,1570 level at the start of the week; the euro trades near its highest levels in the last two months amidst developments in the Middle East and mixed signals regarding a potential deal between the US and Iran. While the daily range forms between 1,1526-1,1586, the potential impact of rising oil prices on inflation is another topic closely watched by investors. Wednesday's FOMC minutes could serve as a critical catalyst for the pair's direction for the rest of the week.
Gold (XAU/USD): Around 4.377 Dollars, Geopolitical Risk Premium Continues
XAU/USD stands at the 4.376,82 dollar level as of the final close before the weekend. Ongoing tensions among Iran, Israel, and the US in the Middle East, a marked weakening of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz toward the weekend, and the Houthis resuming attacks against Saudi Arabia continue to support gold with safe-haven demand. If geopolitical risks persist, upward pressure on spot gold is evaluated to remain intact.
USD/TRY: Flat Course in the 47,80 TL Band
USD/TRY maintains its balanced outlook at the start of the week within the 47,7480-47,9025 TL band, opening at the 47,8065 TL level. The exchange rate continues its narrow-band and controlled course observed in recent weeks; the CBRT's strong reserve position remains the main factor limiting exchange rate volatility.
US Equities: S&P 500 Sets New Record, Reddit Joins the Index
The S&P 500 set its 27th record of the year last Thursday at 7.798,99 points; the Nasdaq Composite rose %0,81 to 26.803,03 points, supported by gains in Meta Platforms, Micron Technology, and Netflix shares. With profit-taking on Friday, the S&P 500 declined %0,2, but the index completed its third consecutive weekly gain. In a separate development, Reddit shares jumped over %11 on Friday following S&P Dow Jones Indices' decision to include it in the index; the company will officially join the spot opened by AvalonBay Communities leaving the index before the market open on Tuesday, 18 August. Such off-cycle index changes can create additional short-term demand for the stock due to mandatory buying by passive funds.
Weak Retail Sales and Middle East-Driven Oil Risk
According to data released by the US Department of Commerce on 14 August, July retail sales declined %0,6, contrary to expectations of a %0,1 increase — the first monthly drop in nine months. Part of the decline is explained by Amazon shifting its annual discount campaign to June this year; however, the %1,8 drop in motor vehicle sales and the %2,2 drop in non-store retailers heighten questions about consumer spending. Meanwhile, Brent crude maintains its strong course in the 87-89 dollar per barrel band driven by supply risks in the Middle East and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz; the combination of weakening consumer data and rising energy prices could narrow the Fed's room for maneuver ahead of its September meeting.
Ekonomik Takvim | 17-23 August 2026
🇺🇸 Monday, 17 August
US Empire State Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index
Initial signals regarding the manufacturing and housing sectors on a relatively calm start to the week.
📈 Tuesday, 18 August
Reddit's Official Inclusion in the S&P 500
The impact of passive fund flows on the stock following the index inclusion decision will be monitored; US export prices and housing starts will also be announced.
🇺🇸 Wednesday, 19 August
FOMC Minutes (28-29 July Meeting)
Details of the meeting where three members dissented in favor of a rate hike will show the depth of divergence within the Fed and could shape expectations for the September meeting.
🇺🇸 Thursday, August 20
Weekly Unemployment Claims
It will provide a new indicator regarding the current trend in the labor market.
🌍 Friday, August 21
US and European Flash PMI Data
Latest signals regarding the growth outlook ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 27-29; new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first speech at the symposium will be closely watched.
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