EUR/USD: Sideways Trend at 1.154 Level
EUR/USD is trading in the 1,1540-1,1542 band at the start of the week. While the pair has gained %1,4 in value over the last month, it has lost %1,2 in value over the last 12-month period — this divergence between short-term recovery and the annual trend indicates that investors are avoiding taking positions while waiting for Wednesday's US CPI data. The data stands out as the main catalyst that will determine the direction of the dollar and thus the pair for the remainder of the week.
Gold (XAU/USD): Around 4.375 Dollars, Strong Annual Performance
XAU/USD is currently trading at the 4.375 dollar level; the daily band is taking shape between 4.357-4.435 dollars. Ounce gold continues its strong upward trend, gaining %31,4 in value over the last 12 months, and its 52-week range was recorded as 3.311-5.595 dollars. Analysts project a course in the range of 3.581-4.646 dollars for the month of August; net gold purchases maintained by central banks continue to be the main element structurally supporting the price.
USD/TRY: Controlled Course in the 47,70 TL Band
USD/TRY displays a balanced outlook at the beginning of the week in the 47,67-47,75 TL band, opening at the 47,70 TL level. According to the last 7 days of data, the exchange rate moved within the range of 47,54-47,80 TL and hovered at an average of 47,67 TL — indicating that the controlled exchange rate regime supported by the CBRT's strong reserve position continues.
US Stocks: Geopolitical Tension and Big Tech Weakness Create Pressure
The Nasdaq 100 index fell to 29.503 points (%0,40 decline) under the influence of rising concerns regarding US-Iran tensions and the pullback in big tech stocks (especially Alphabet); the daily trading band took shape between 29.428-29.706 points. S&P 500 lost %0,3 and Nasdaq Composite lost %0,6 in value. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil continued to hold in the 87-88 dollars per barrel band with a geopolitical risk premium.
Ekonomik Takvim | 10-16 August 2026
🇦🇺 Tuesday, 11 August
RBA Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision may increase volatility in AUD pairs.
🇺🇸 Wednesday, 12 August
US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The most critical data of the week; it could directly affect the Fed's rate cut expectations and therefore the pricing on EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and the dollar index.
🇺🇸 Saturday, 15 August
Weekly Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Philly Fed Index, and Industrial Production
A dense US data package to be announced on the same day will provide an updated picture on the labor market and consumer spending.
🇺🇸 Sunday, 16 August
Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)
Housing sector and consumer confidence data closing out the week could provide an additional directional signal for the dollar and US equity markets.
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