EUR/USD: 1,15 Support Critical Ahead of NFP
At the start of the week, EUR/USD is trading around the 1,1500 psychological level; below this level, 1,1400 and the 1,1370-1,1420 region are monitored as the next support points. To the upside, 1,1568, where the 100-day moving average lies, is the initial resistance, while 1,1631, crossed by the 200-day moving average, stands as the next target. Market expectations for Friday's NFP data are towards 91 thousand new jobs and a %4,3 unemployment rate; data falling short of expectations could cause the dollar to depreciate and lead the pair toward the resistance region.
Gold (XAU/USD): Squeezing Triangle Awaits Breakout
XAU/USD has been squeezed within a symmetrical triangle pattern in the 4.020-4.070 dollar band over the past six weeks; the price is currently trading in the 4.040-4.080 dollar range. The RSI indicator trending neutral at the 44 level signals a sharp breakout in the near term. In an upside breakout, 4.120 and 4.172 dollars stand out as target levels, while in the case of a drop below 4.020 dollars, 3.964 and 3.914 dollars are the next supports. Central banks purchasing 289 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2026 continues to support the price structurally.
USD/TRY: Controlled Course with CBRT Reserves
USD/TRY is following a balanced course in the 47,60-47,70 TL band at the start of the week. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey raising its gross reserves to 205,2 billion dollars and net reserves (excluding swaps) to 78,8 billion dollars is one of the main factors limiting exchange rate volatility. Conversely, year-end projections indicate that the exchange rate could follow a gradual rise towards the 49,70-50,00 TL band; the CBRT's interest rate policy is the main variable that will determine the speed of this process.
The Week's Main Agenda: NFP to be Released on Friday
Among the PMI and employment data to be released throughout the week, the most critical topic is the US non-farm payrolls report to be announced on Friday. Ahead of the data, Wednesday's ADP private sector employment report and ISM Services PMI could provide preliminary signals to the markets. Weak employment data could pressuring the dollar by strengthening Fed rate cut expectations and support risk assets, particularly gold/EUR; strong data could have the exact opposite effect.
Ekonomik Takvim | 3-9 August 2026
🇺🇸 Monday, 3 August
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
A reading above 50 supports the dollar, while a reading below it weighs on the dollar.
🇺🇸 Wednesday, 5 August
ADP Private Sector Employment Report and ISM Services PMI
Will provide the first signals regarding the labor market ahead of Friday's NFP.
🇪🇺 Thursday, 6 August
Eurozone Retail Sales
Strong data could support the euro, while weak data could put pressure on EUR/USD.
🇺🇸 Friday, 7 August
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate
The most critical data of the week; market expectations are for 91 thousand new jobs and a %4,3 unemployment rate. A surprise deviation could lead to sharp movements in EUR/USD, XAU/USD and the dollar index.
🇨🇦 Friday, 7 August
Canada Unemployment Rate
It may increase volatility in the USD/CAD pair.
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