Gold: Post-Warsh Losses Continue, Retreats to $4,450 Band
Following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish statements at Jackson Hole, XAU/USD dropped to the $4,450-4,460 band, losing over 3%. Spot gold had seen levels close to $4,700, gaining nearly 14% during a three-week rally; however, with rate hike expectations strengthening after Warsh's message that the fight against inflation must continue, the metal continues its decline.
September Rate Hike Probability Settles at 57% on CME FedWatch
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's September 16 meeting stabilized at this level after rising from the 35-40% band prior to Warsh's speech to 57%. Meanwhile, the probability of at least one rate hike by December continues to be priced in at over 88%.
Dollar Index (DXY) Consolidates Around 99 Level
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating around the 99.0 level following Friday's sharp Warsh-driven rise. Markets are closely watching statements from Fed members and macro data coming later in the week for directional guidance.
EUR/USD Attempts Recovery Around 1.16 Level
Despite hawkish Fed expectations, EUR/USD started the week relatively resilient, recovering to the 1.1590-1.1600 band. In contrast, institutions like UOB emphasize that downside risks for the pair remain on the agenda.
State Inflation Data Rises in Germany, National CPI Awaited
In Germany's preliminary state inflation data, the Baden-Württemberg CPI rose from 2.5% to 2.6% annually, while the North Rhine-Westphalia CPI rose from 2.7% to 2.9%. These figures indicate that the preliminary national CPI figure to be announced during the day could also surprise to the upside; this could reshape the inflation outlook ahead of the ECB's September meeting.
Tightening of US Sanctions Against Iran
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that they expect new weekly secondary sanctions to be imposed on Iran as part of "Operation Economic Outcast"; the sanctions are stated to cover digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and maritime sectors. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East keep the risk premium alive on safe-haven assets and energy prices.
Ekonomik Takvim | 31 August - 5 September 2026
🇩🇪 Monday, August 31
Germany Preliminary CPI (August)
If the national figure also comes in above expectations following the upside surprise in state data, volatility in EUR pairs may increase.
🇺🇸 Friday, September 4
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The last major labor market data point ahead of the Fed's September interest rate decision; a surprising outcome could reprice the rate hike expectations currently sitting at 57%.
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